✓ Beat expectations (seeded 19th)
-0.059Change
Published Rating-0.506current view: -0.383
ⓘ+0.123 since 2 months ago
Uncertainty (σ)0.378
Conservative (μ−3σ)-1.641
Events Played19
FlickSkill™ Over Timehow the system's estimate of your skill has evolved
3
The yellow line is the system's current best estimate of your skill at each point in your history — a smooth arc that reflects everything FlickSkill now knows, with the benefit of hindsight. The green line is your published rating — what the leaderboard showed right after each event, with no future data yet. The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since. The blue dotted lines are past traces — each one shows what FlickSkill thought of your whole rating history right after a previous tournament. Newer traces are darker; older traces fade. The slider controls how many to show.
Tournament Results
✓ Exceeded seeding (was 18th)
+0.009Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 18th)
+0.214Change
Held seed (33rd)
-0.037Change
Held seed (44th)
-0.107Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 29th)
+0.105Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 100th)
+0.299Change
Below seeding (was 14th)
-0.015Change
Close to seeding (was 22nd)
-0.186Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 29th)
+0.024Change
✓ Exceeded seeding (was 20th)
-0.058Change
Held seed (37th)
-0.050Change
Below seeding (was 20th)
-0.285Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 9th)
-0.063Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 84th)
+0.354Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 51st)
-0.009Change
✓ Exceeded seeding (was 19th)
-0.057Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 24th)
+0.094Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 26th)
-0.676Change
How the chart is built
The yellow Skill Arc is FlickSkill's current best estimate of your true skill at every point in your history — a smooth curve fit across all data, including events that happened after each point. It's the most accurate retrospective view, but it keeps moving every time the system learns from a new tournament.
The green Published Rating is what the leaderboard showed at the time. Each green dot is the endpoint of TTT's view right after that tournament was processed, with no future data yet — that's the rating you would have actually seen on the public page. The green line never moves once an event is locked.
The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since — wider gaps mean later results pulled the system's view of that event up or down. Hover a point to see both values plus the felt change since the previous event.
The blue dotted lines are past traces — each shows the full Skill Arc as FlickSkill saw it after a previous tournament. The slider controls how many overlap. Together they show how the system's view of your whole history evolves over time.