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Kristofer Carlton
NCA-2891Rank #272
NCASECNECT
Published Rating1.211current view: 1.395
+0.184 since 5 months ago
Uncertainty (σ)0.643
Conservative (μ−3σ)-0.717
Events Played6
FlickSkill Over Timehow the system's estimate of your skill has evolved
3
The yellow line is the system's current best estimate of your skill at each point in your history — a smooth arc that reflects everything FlickSkill now knows, with the benefit of hindsight. The green line is your published rating — what the leaderboard showed right after each event, with no future data yet. The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since. The blue dotted lines are past traces — each one shows what FlickSkill thought of your whole rating history right after a previous tournament. Newer traces are darker; older traces fade. The slider controls how many to show.

Tournament Results

Divine Duos 2026· Jan 10, 2026 · DoublesPlace 4th of 17Tier 2 · FSI 0.610Beat 13 teams
✓ Exceeded seeding (was 5th)
+0.225Change
Charleston Singles 2025· Feb 22, 2025 · SinglesPlace 42nd of 51Tier 1 · FSI 0.948Beat 9 players
Below seeding (was 25th)
-1.076Change
Charleston Doubles 2025· Feb 22, 2025 · DoublesPlace 17th of 26Tier 1 · FSI 0.894Beat 9 teams
Below seeding (was 11th)
-0.036Change
Charlotte 2024· Jan 11, 2025 · DoublesPlace 1st of 11Tier 3 · FSI 0.403Beat 10 teams
✓ Exceeded seeding (was 2nd)
+0.980Change
Maryland 2024· Oct 26, 2024 · DoublesPlace 12th of 22Tier 2 · FSI 0.681Beat 10 teams
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 14th)
+0.290Change

How the chart is built

The yellow Skill Arc is FlickSkill's current best estimate of your true skill at every point in your history — a smooth curve fit across all data, including events that happened after each point. It's the most accurate retrospective view, but it keeps moving every time the system learns from a new tournament.

The green Published Rating is what the leaderboard showed at the time. Each green dot is the endpoint of TTT's view right after that tournament was processed, with no future data yet — that's the rating you would have actually seen on the public page. The green line never moves once an event is locked.

The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since — wider gaps mean later results pulled the system's view of that event up or down. Hover a point to see both values plus the felt change since the previous event.

The blue dotted lines are past traces — each shows the full Skill Arc as FlickSkill saw it after a previous tournament. The slider controls how many overlap. Together they show how the system's view of your whole history evolves over time.