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Spike Geffert
NCA-1683Rank #115
NCASEC
Published Rating2.230current view: 2.377
+0.147 since 6 months ago
Uncertainty (σ)0.435
Conservative (μ−3σ)0.924
Events Played7

Still calibrating. Only 7 rated events so far — new ratings move a lot and may not line up with how you placed in any one event. This settles as more games are played.

FlickSkill Over Timehow the system's estimate of your skill has evolved
3
The yellow line is the system's current best estimate of your skill at each point in your history — a smooth arc that reflects everything FlickSkill now knows, with the benefit of hindsight. The green line is your published rating — what the leaderboard showed right after each event, with no future data yet. The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since. The blue dotted lines are past traces — each one shows what FlickSkill thought of your whole rating history right after a previous tournament. Newer traces are darker; older traces fade. The slider controls how many to show.

Tournament Results

Charleston Singles 2026· Mar 8, 2026 · SinglesPlace 30th of 52Tier 1 · FSI 0.935Beat 22 players
Below seeding (was 15th)
-0.190Change
Charleston Doubles 2026· Mar 8, 2026 · DoublesPlace 8th of 27Tier 1 · FSI 0.921Beat 19 teams
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 12th)
+0.142Change
NCS Singles 2026· Feb 7, 2026 · SinglesPlace 5th of 36Tier 3 · FSI 0.520Beat 31 players
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 8th)⚠ Still calibrating
+0.384Change
NCS Doubles 2026· Feb 7, 2026 · DoublesPlace 6th of 17Tier 3 · FSI 0.584Beat 11 teams
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 9th)⚠ Still calibrating
+0.438Change
Masters 2025· Oct 11, 2025 · DoublesPlace 22nd of 23Tier 1 · FSI 0.834Beat 1 teams
Below seeding (was 9th)⚠ Still calibrating
-0.831Change
Oxford Crokibowl 2025· Feb 8, 2025 · DoublesPlace 1st of 20Tier 3 · FSI 0.400Beat 19 teams
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 6th)⚠ Still calibrating
+1.178Change
Charlotte 2024· Jan 11, 2025 · DoublesPlace 5th of 11Tier 3 · FSI 0.400Beat 6 teams
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 7th)⚠ Still calibrating
+1.110Change

How the chart is built

The yellow Skill Arc is FlickSkill's current best estimate of your true skill at every point in your history — a smooth curve fit across all data, including events that happened after each point. It's the most accurate retrospective view, but it keeps moving every time the system learns from a new tournament.

The green Published Rating is what the leaderboard showed at the time. Each green dot is the endpoint of TTT's view right after that tournament was processed, with no future data yet — that's the rating you would have actually seen on the public page. The green line never moves once an event is locked.

The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since — wider gaps mean later results pulled the system's view of that event up or down. Hover a point to see both values plus the felt change since the previous event.

The blue dotted lines are past traces — each shows the full Skill Arc as FlickSkill saw it after a previous tournament. The slider controls how many overlap. Together they show how the system's view of your whole history evolves over time.