✓ Beat expectations (seeded 5th)
+0.205Change
Published Rating2.251current view: 2.391
ⓘ+0.141 since 2 months ago
Uncertainty (σ)0.340
Conservative (μ−3σ)1.232
Events Played24
FlickSkill™ Over Timehow the system's estimate of your skill has evolved
3
The yellow line is the system's current best estimate of your skill at each point in your history — a smooth arc that reflects everything FlickSkill now knows, with the benefit of hindsight. The green line is your published rating — what the leaderboard showed right after each event, with no future data yet. The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since. The blue dotted lines are past traces — each one shows what FlickSkill thought of your whole rating history right after a previous tournament. Newer traces are darker; older traces fade. The slider controls how many to show.
Tournament Results
Held seed (2nd)
+0.089Change
Close to seeding (was 7th)
+0.002≈ no change
Held seed (4th)
+0.039≈ no change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 20th)
+0.136Change
Close to seeding (was 5th)
-0.001≈ no change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 6th)
+0.116Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 4th)
+0.277Change
Held seed (2nd)
+0.031≈ no change
Below seeding (was 1st)
-0.128Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 12th)
+0.150Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 6th)
+0.133Change
Below seeding (was 12th)
-0.105Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 11th)
+0.211Change
Held seed (3rd)
+0.026≈ no change
Held seed (8th)
-0.082Change
Held seed (7th)
-0.002≈ no change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 6th)
+0.111Change
Close to seeding (was 3rd)
-0.150Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 6th)⚠ Still calibrating
+0.507Change
Below seeding (was 4th)⚠ Still calibrating
-0.320Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 8th)⚠ Still calibrating
+0.993Change
Below seeding (was 7th)⚠ Still calibrating
-0.390Change
Held seed (7th)⚠ Still calibrating
+0.401Change
How the chart is built
The yellow Skill Arc is FlickSkill's current best estimate of your true skill at every point in your history — a smooth curve fit across all data, including events that happened after each point. It's the most accurate retrospective view, but it keeps moving every time the system learns from a new tournament.
The green Published Rating is what the leaderboard showed at the time. Each green dot is the endpoint of TTT's view right after that tournament was processed, with no future data yet — that's the rating you would have actually seen on the public page. The green line never moves once an event is locked.
The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since — wider gaps mean later results pulled the system's view of that event up or down. Hover a point to see both values plus the felt change since the previous event.
The blue dotted lines are past traces — each shows the full Skill Arc as FlickSkill saw it after a previous tournament. The slider controls how many overlap. Together they show how the system's view of your whole history evolves over time.