✓ Beat expectations (seeded 76th)
+0.015≈ no change
Published Rating2.253current view: 2.310
ⓘ+0.056 since 3 months ago
Uncertainty (σ)0.310
Conservative (μ−3σ)1.322
Events Played23
FlickSkill™ Over Timehow the system's estimate of your skill has evolved
3
The yellow line is the system's current best estimate of your skill at each point in your history — a smooth arc that reflects everything FlickSkill now knows, with the benefit of hindsight. The green line is your published rating — what the leaderboard showed right after each event, with no future data yet. The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since. The blue dotted lines are past traces — each one shows what FlickSkill thought of your whole rating history right after a previous tournament. Newer traces are darker; older traces fade. The slider controls how many to show.
Tournament Results
Held seed (37th)
+0.012≈ no change
Below seeding (was 4th)
-0.056Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 17th)
+0.128Change
✓ Exceeded seeding (was 2nd)
+0.110Change
Below seeding (was 18th)
-0.093Change
Below seeding (was 6th)
-0.042≈ no change
✓ Exceeded seeding (was 7th)
+0.099Change
Below seeding (was 5th)
-0.111Change
Below seeding (was 8th)
-0.121Change
Close to seeding (was 2nd)
+0.141Change
✓ Exceeded seeding (was 8th)
+0.064Change
Charleston Flick Off Cancer 2025· Aug 23, 2025 · DoublesPlace 1st of 8Tier 3 · FSI 0.400Beat 7 teams
✓ Exceeded seeding (was 2nd)
+0.190Change
Below seeding (was 7th)
-0.052Change
Close to seeding (was 2nd)
+0.001≈ no change
Below seeding (was 71st)
-0.013≈ no change
Below seeding (was 28th)
+0.012≈ no change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 18th)
+0.116Change
Below seeding (was 12th)
+0.108Change
Held seed (3rd)
+0.212Change
✓ Exceeded seeding (was 9th)⚠ Still calibrating
+0.047≈ no change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 10th)⚠ Still calibrating
+0.119Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 7th)⚠ Still calibrating
+1.366Change
How the chart is built
The yellow Skill Arc is FlickSkill's current best estimate of your true skill at every point in your history — a smooth curve fit across all data, including events that happened after each point. It's the most accurate retrospective view, but it keeps moving every time the system learns from a new tournament.
The green Published Rating is what the leaderboard showed at the time. Each green dot is the endpoint of TTT's view right after that tournament was processed, with no future data yet — that's the rating you would have actually seen on the public page. The green line never moves once an event is locked.
The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since — wider gaps mean later results pulled the system's view of that event up or down. Hover a point to see both values plus the felt change since the previous event.
The blue dotted lines are past traces — each shows the full Skill Arc as FlickSkill saw it after a previous tournament. The slider controls how many overlap. Together they show how the system's view of your whole history evolves over time.